[Industry Analysis] Analysis of China’s Passenger Vehicle Market for Auto Exports from January to September 2025
Release time:
2025-10-28 14:29
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From January to September 2025, China's auto exports continued their growth trend. Among them, passenger vehicles—being the mainstay of exports—have demonstrated outstanding performance in terms of export volume, market layout, and powertrain structure, while also facing challenges posed by fluctuations in certain markets. Based on China's auto export market data from January to September 2025, this article conducts a comprehensive analysis focusing on the overall trends, structural characteristics, regional distribution, and performance of specific sub-categories within passenger vehicle exports.
From January to September 2025, China’s total passenger car exports reached 4.834 million units, a 24% increase year-on-year compared to the same period in 2024. This accounted for 85% of China’s total auto exports during the same period (5.692 million units), continuing to make passenger cars the core pillar of China’s auto export sector. Looking at monthly performance, passenger car exports in September totaled 647,000 units, up 27% year-on-year but unchanged from the previous month. Although there was no month-on-month growth, the strong year-on-year growth rate highlights the resilience of demand.
Looking at historical trends, since China’s passenger car exports entered a period of rapid growth in 2021, the growth rate has gradually shifted from “ultra-high speed” to “steady”: In 2021, passenger car exports increased by 102% year-on-year; from 2022 to 2023, the growth rate remained above 50%; and from 2024 to 2025, the growth rate slowed down to a range of 20%–25%, consistent with the industry’s shift from “incremental expansion” to “high-quality development.”
2. Export Momentum: Product Competitiveness and Market Diversification Underpin Growth
The core drivers behind the growth in passenger vehicle exports come from two aspects:
Enhanced product competitiveness: Chinese independent automakers (such as Geely, Changan, Chery, and BYD) continue to highlight their technological advancements—such as intelligent connectivity and new-energy vehicles—and their cost-performance advantages in the passenger-car segment, particularly in plug-in hybrid and hybrid models, where they have established differentiated competitiveness.
Market diversification reduces risk: Compared to the stage when reliance on a single market was predominant, in 2025 passenger car exports covered multiple regions worldwide, with balanced growth in markets such as the Middle East, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Europe, effectively offsetting the negative impact of declines in single markets like Russia. For example, from January to September 2025, passenger car exports to Russia fell by 54% year-on-year; however, increased exports to markets such as the United Arab Emirates, Australia, and the Philippines more than made up for this shortfall, ensuring that overall growth remained stable.
From January to September 2025, the powertrain structure of passenger vehicle exports showed significant differentiation. New-energy vehicles (pure electric + plug-in hybrid + hybrid) became the main driver of growth, while the growth rate of fuel-powered vehicles (gasoline + diesel) slowed down markedly. The specific performance is as follows:
Pure electric vehicle: Steady Growth: Exports of pure electric passenger vehicles reached 1.572 million units, up 24% year-on-year. In September, exports totaled 190,000 units, an increase of 31% over the same period last year. These exports are primarily driven by markets in Western Europe (Belgium and the UK) and Southeast Asia (the Philippines and Thailand). However, due to EU tariff policies and a “bias toward larger-sized products,” the supply of small-sized pure electric models is insufficient, causing their growth rate to slow down relative to that of plug-in hybrid vehicles.
Hybrid vehicle: Rapid Rise: Exports of conventional hybrid passenger vehicles reached 340,000 units, up 96% year-on-year, with a growth rate of 124% in September. These vehicles have performed particularly well in the EU and Middle Eastern markets, reflecting an increasingly strong ability of Chinese passenger vehicles to replace fuel-powered cars.
Internal combustion engine vehicle: Growth under pressure: Exports of gasoline-powered passenger vehicles fell by 2% year-on-year, while diesel-powered passenger vehicle exports declined by 42%, primarily due to the downturn in Russia’s fuel vehicle market (from January to September, exports of fuel-powered passenger vehicles to Russia plunged by 57%). Meanwhile, the substitution effect of new-energy vehicles over fuel vehicles is gradually becoming more apparent.
2. Vehicle Structure: Primarily focused on small- and medium-displacement models, with an emerging trend toward premiumization.
From the perspective of engine displacement, China’s passenger car exports are overwhelmingly dominated by vehicles in the 1.0L–1.5L displacement range. From January to September 2025, exports in this displacement segment accounted for more than 60% of total gasoline-powered passenger car exports, aligning with the demand in most global markets for “economical and practical” models—and representing a core competitive advantage for China’s domestic automakers.
Meanwhile, the trend toward premiumization is gradually becoming apparent:
Vehicles with engine displacements of 1.5L–2.5L: In the earlier period, the company expanded rapidly due to growing demand for high-end SUVs in the Russian market. However, after the Russian market reached saturation in 2025, exports of vehicles in this segment declined by 27% year-on-year, highlighting the risks associated with over-reliance on a single market.
High-end new energy vehicles: The average export price of all-electric high-end models (such as BYD Han and NIO ET5) in Western Europe and the Australian market has reached between US$25,000 and US$30,000, a 40% increase compared to 2020, reflecting enhanced product premium capabilities.
From the perspective of vehicle model categories, “unlisted passenger vehicles” (including micro and small electric vehicles and customized models) and “passenger cars with 9 seats or fewer” are the main export drivers.
Unlisted passenger vehicle: From January to September 2025, exports reached 1.572 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 24%. Independent small and micro electric vehicles (such as the Wuling Hongguang MINI EV) are in strong demand in markets in Southeast Asia and Central and South America.
Passenger vehicles with 9 or fewer seats: Exports reached 1.686 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 29%. The vehicles are primarily supplied to the Middle East and Australian markets and are intended for both household and commercial use.
From January to September 2025, China’s passenger vehicle exports showed a pattern of “diversified and balanced growth,” with the Middle East, Central and South America, and Europe contributing the major increments.
2. Key countries: Mexico tops the list, with significant increases in the UAE and the Philippines.
(1) Top 10 countries by cumulative exports (January–September 2025)
From January to September 2025, the top 10 countries for China’s cumulative passenger vehicle exports were as follows: Mexico (411,000 vehicles), the United Arab Emirates (368,000 vehicles), Russia (358,000 vehicles), Belgium (234,000 vehicles), the United Kingdom (225,000 vehicles), Saudi Arabia (224,000 vehicles), Australia (223,000 vehicles), Brazil (218,000 vehicles), the Philippines (197,000 vehicles), and Kazakhstan (147,000 vehicles).
Among them, the top five countries in terms of increase are:
UAE (+137,000 vehicles, up 59% year-on-year): Demand for new-energy vehicles (plug-in hybrids and pure electrics) has surged, making it a key market in the Middle East.
Australia (+90,000 vehicles, up 68% year-on-year): Pure electric and hybrid models are benefiting from policy incentives, with average export prices reaching US$20,000.
Philippines (+74,000 vehicles, up 60% year-on-year): The penetration rate of small and micro electric vehicles has increased, making it the fastest-growing market in Southeast Asia.
United Kingdom (+74,000 vehicles, up 49% year-on-year): Pure-electric models are gaining momentum in the European market, with export volumes second only to those of Belgium.
Algeria (+74,000 vehicles, up 275% year-on-year): Demand for gasoline-powered vehicles is recovering rapidly, filling the gap left by the Russian market.
(2) Top 10 countries for September exports
In September, the top 10 countries for passenger vehicle exports were: Russia (69,000 vehicles), Mexico (49,000 vehicles), the United Arab Emirates (48,000 vehicles), the United Kingdom (28,000 vehicles), Saudi Arabia (26,000 vehicles), Australia (24,000 vehicles), Brazil (24,000 vehicles), Belgium (22,000 vehicles), the Philippines (20,000 vehicles), and Algeria (20,000 vehicles).
Notably, in September, Russia once again topped the monthly export rankings (69,000 vehicles, down 52% year-on-year). However, this rebound was largely driven by short-term restocking needs following the completion of earlier inventory digestion. As a result, from January to September, cumulative exports still declined by 58% year-on-year. Chinese automakers have significantly enhanced their “risk-awareness” toward the Russian market, adopting increasingly cautious export strategies.
From January to September 2025, China exported 2.473 million fuel-powered passenger vehicles (gasoline + diesel), a 1% decrease year-on-year. Although the overall growth rate has slowed down, these vehicles remain the core choice in some less-developed markets.
Gasoline passenger vehicles: Exports totaled 2.453 million vehicles, down 2% year-on-year. The main export destinations were Mexico (206,000 vehicles), Russia (311,000 vehicles, down 57% year-on-year), and the United Arab Emirates (182,000 vehicles). Vehicles with engine displacements between 1.0L and 1.5L accounted for over 60% of total exports.
Diesel passenger vehicles: Exports totaled 20,000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 42%. Only limited demand remains in African markets such as South Africa and Nigeria, and these models are gradually being replaced by hybrid vehicles.
From the perspective of country-specific growth, fuel-powered passenger vehicles saw significant export increases in markets such as Algeria (+71,000 units, up 428% year-on-year), Kazakhstan (+45,000 units, up 73% year-on-year), and Australia (+31,000 units, up 61% year-on-year), effectively offsetting the decline in Russia.
2. Purely electric passenger vehicles: Dual-wheel drive in Western Europe and Southeast Asia
From January to September 2025, exports of pure electric passenger vehicles reached 1.572 million units, an increase of 24% year-on-year, accounting for 32.5% of total passenger vehicle exports. The core markets are concentrated in Western Europe and Southeast Asia.
Western European market: Belgium (163,000 vehicles), the United Kingdom (101,000 vehicles), and Germany (76,000 vehicles) are the top three markets, primarily supplying high-end all-electric models (such as BYD’s Model 3 and NIO’s ET7). The average export price ranges from US$24,000 to US$28,000, meeting EU environmental standards.
Southeast Asian market: Demand has surged in the Philippines (129,000 vehicles), Thailand (92,000 vehicles), and Indonesia (70,000 vehicles). Small and micro pure-electric models—such as the Wuling Bingo—are seeing rapidly increasing penetration rates because they are well-suited to short-distance travel needs.
In September, exports of pure electric passenger vehicles reached 190,000 units, an increase of 31% year-on-year. Indonesia (15,000 units, up 247% year-on-year) and South Korea (7,000 units, up 539% year-on-year) were the main contributors to this growth for the month, reflecting the growth potential of emerging markets.
3. Plug-in Hybrid Passenger Vehicles: Global Market Booms, with the Middle East and Europe Leading the Way
Plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles were the “biggest highlight” in passenger vehicle exports in 2025. From January to September, exports reached 690,000 units, a year-on-year surge of 208%. In September alone, exports totaled 96,000 units, up 292% year-on-year. Their key advantage lies in eliminating “range anxiety,” making them well-suited to usage scenarios in most global markets.
Middle East market: Demand has surged in the UAE (53,000 vehicles, up 1,288% year-on-year) and Israel (45,000 vehicles, up 36,563% year-on-year), making plug-in hybrid SUVs—such as Chery Starway Lingyun PHEV—top picks for high-end family users.
European market: Belgium (56,000 vehicles, up 571% year-on-year) and the United Kingdom (48,000 vehicles, up 383% year-on-year) saw significant growth in exports. Plug-in hybrid models are eligible for EU new-energy subsidies, highlighting their cost-performance advantages.
Central and South American Market: Brazil (89,000 units, up 24% year-on-year) and Mexico (58,000 units, up 126% year-on-year) are gradually emerging as new growth drivers. Plug-in hybrid pickup trucks (such as the Great Wall Poer PHEV) are experiencing strong demand in commercial applications.
4. Hybrid passenger vehicles: The EU and the Middle East are key markets, accelerating the shift away from gasoline-powered cars.
From January to September 2025, hybrid passenger car exports reached 340,000 units, an increase of 96% year-on-year. In September alone, exports totaled 50,000 units (up 124% year-on-year), primarily targeting markets with an urgent demand for alternatives to gasoline-powered vehicles.
EU market: Exports reached 132,000 vehicles (up 114% year-on-year). Policy support for hybrid vehicles in France, Germany, and Italy—such as lower purchase taxes—has driven demand growth.
Middle East market: The UAE (74,000 vehicles, up 123% year-on-year) and Saudi Arabia (35,000 vehicles, up 79% year-on-year) have emerged as key markets, where the fuel efficiency advantage of hybrid models in high-temperature environments has been widely recognized.
In the future, China’s passenger vehicle exports need to focus on three key areas:
Technological iteration: Continuously strengthen the technological advantages of plug-in hybrid and hybrid systems, supplement the supply of small pure-electric models, and better align with diverse market demands.
Deep market cultivation: Establish localized channels in incremental markets such as the Middle East and Southeast Asia to mitigate trade policy risks.
Brand Upgrade: By leveraging premium models (such as NIO and Li Auto) to enhance brand premium in developed markets like Europe and Australia, we will drive a shift from “cost-performance advantage” to “technological advantage.”
Overall, China's passenger vehicle exports have entered a new stage of "high-quality growth." As long as the international market environment remains stable and leveraging its product competitiveness and diversified market strategy, there will continue to be ample room for future growth.
Reposted from: Cui Dongshu, Jiaqi Association
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